The Nobel Prizes, whose winners are announced in September，may be the world's most desired awards. As soon as new winners are named, critics start comparing the winners' achievements with those of past ones.
The Nobel Foundation's rules prevent disclosure of the selection process for 50 years. A full explanation of why, for example，Stephen Hawking wasn't awarded the Prize will have to wait until 2068. But once this rule ends, the foundation shows who offered nominations (提名) and whom they supported. Its data start in 1901 and end in 1953 for medicine; 1966 for physics, chemistry and literature; and 1967 for peace.
The requirement for entry to a Nobel nomination is low. For the peace prize, public officials and experts offer names to a committee that picks the winner. For the others, Swedish academies seek names from thousands of people, mostly professors, and hold a vote for the winner. On average, 55 nominations per year were applied for each prize in 1901-1966.
Candidates (候选人) with lots of nominations don't mean victory. Historically，candidates put forward by past winners went on to win at some point in the future 40% more often than those whose nominators never won a Nobel did. And people whose nominators became winners later on also won unusually often. According to the Nobel Foundation's online report，all 11 of Einstein's nominees won a prize. Some were already famous, like Max Planck; others, like Walther Bothe, were less-known. These two cases show that his support seems to have been decisive. So getting lots of nominations doesn't mean having won a Nobel Prize—unless the nominations come from other winners.
