Global GDP in 2030 will be 14% higher as a result of AI (Artificial Intelligence), thanks to improving labor productivity and increasing consumer demand, says a report.
The report could increase the enthusiasm of economic policymakers and the public, and show the power of technology in changing not only people's daily lives, but also economic activities. However, history tells us that, while technological advancements have brought us benefits, they have also led to great social disorders, by changing the production and labor structures, and forcing many workers to either adapt to the changes or lose their jobs. In the 18th century, for instance, skilled workers rose up to resist the Industrial Revolution, destroying machinery in the early 19th century. We may not see similar protests today, but history should serve as a warning against the application of AI technology.
While we may gain a lot of benefits from AI, we must work out plans to reduce its negative effect on society, especially for workers. AI can raise productivity and expand GDP, but it can also make non-adaptive workers jobless. In India, some technology personnel have already felt the negative effect of information technology. As technology industries across the world seek increasing support from automation（自动操作）, robotics and big data analysis, some technology workers have already lost their jobs.
In their 2013 research study, Michael Osborne and Carl Frey from Oxford University estimated 47% of the jobs in the United States are “at risk” of being automated in the next 20 years. They said jobs in transportation and office and administrative support are at high risk of being automated. And Kaifu Lee recently said that robots could take away about 50% of all jobs from humans in the next decade.
Those estimates may sound sensational and the impact of technological advancements may not be that serious, as they will also create jobs in new industries. However, policymakers should consider how to better embrace the technological wave to bring benefits while taking action to minimize its negative effects. The government therefore needs to work together with business leaders and social organizations, to promote training programs for potentially helpless workers, in order to make them more capable of adapting to the structural changes in industries and job markets in the future.
