“Federal weather forecasters are predicting a 'near normal' number of storms this hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November l. Between nine and 15 named storms are predicted to form in the Atlantic this year, ”said Neil Jacobs, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“Of those, between four and eight are predicted to become full-blown hurricanes, with winds capable of removing shingles（木瓦）and taking down power lines, ” Jacobs said Thursday at a news conference to announce the forecast. “And between two and four storms are expected to strengthen into so-called major hurricanes, with winds strong enough to break trees and tear off roofs.”
Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA, said people shouldn't be fooled into satisfactions by the word “normal”. “Nine to fifteen named storms are a lot,” he said. “Two to four major hurricanes are a lot. So the key message is：We're expecting a near-normal season, but you need to start getting prepared for the hurricane season now.”
This year's outlook is shaped by two competing meteorological （气象学的）phenomena. On one hand, the climate pattern known as El Nino （厄尔尼诺）is happening this year, which generally prevents hurricane activity in the Atlantic. At the same time, the water at the surface of the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean is warmer than usual. That warm water acts like an engine for hurricanes, fueling their creation and making them bigger and wetter.
While ocean temperatures change under normal climate conditions, global warming is also causing ocean waters to get hotter. The overall global surface temperature has already risen more than 1 degree Fahrenheit compared with pre-industrial times. That suggests increasing hurricane risk, as big and wet storms become more likely.
